According to data partner, Circana, chocolate, candy, gum and mint sales during the 52 weeks ending January 26, 2025 reached $39.2 billion, up 2.0% over year-ago levels. Gains were predominantly driven by non-chocolate candy, that grew by nearly 5% over the past year. Chocolate and gum sales were somewhat softer. Supermarkets have come on strong in the past year, with a 52-week gain of 3.5% on $9.5 billion in confectionery sales. On the other hand, convenience and drug stores lost ground. Convenience stores experienced declines in both chocolate and non-chocolate candy for an overall decline of 1.4% over the latest 52 weeks. Drug stores also experienced across-the-board declines, with chocolate being the greatest area of pressure.

Chocolate

Across the MULO+ with convenience store channels, chocolate sales reached $21.5 billion in the 52 weeks ending January 26^th. This reflects an increase of 0.5%. Larger value packs were the biggest contributor to sales, whereas snack size chocolate had the highest year-on-year gains. However, all gains were driven by inflation with units down 3.2% year-on-year. Volume sales were also unable to hold the line and dropped by 3.4%. Novelty chocolate was a strong exception. While a smaller seller, at $73 million annually, novelty chocolate grew 74.5% in dollars and 60.9% in units.

Non-chocolate candy

Candy had a strong start to the year. With big gains in novelty, seasonal, chewy and sugar-free candy, non-chocolate candy sales reached $12.7 billion which reflects an increase of 4.9% over latest 52 weeks.  Unit sales also looked better than that of chocolate. Over the yearlong period, units were virtually unchanged at -0.1% and volume was up a smidge, at +0.1%. Areas with pound growth included caramel/taffy, novelty, seasonal and sugar-free candy.

Gum/mints

Breath fresheners had a solid dollar performance over the past year, with 1.9% growth. While units were down 4.5%, volume was virtually flat — signaling a shift to larger pack sizes. Sugar-free gum grew dollar sales 1.5% over the past year, but was unable to maintain unit and volume sales. Regular gum declined in all three sales measures.

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Total chocolate, candy, gum and mint sales in Circana’s MULO+ with convenience stores universe came in at $39.1 billion in 2024. This reflects an increase of 2.0% over 2023, driven by an above-average performance by non-chocolate candy. Supermarkets had a strong 2024 performance, up 3.3% in dollars, whereas drug and convenience stores lost ground. Convenience stores had been the growth leader in both 2022 and 2023.

Chocolate

At $21.4 billion, chocolate generated the majority share of confectionery dollars. However, as inflation moderated and units (-3.3%) and volume (-3.5%) decreased year-over-year, dollar growth slowed to just 0.4% in 2024. A few subcategories managed to grow units and pounds, including novelty and snack-sized chocolate. Others, including seasonal and sugar-free chocolate lost substantial ground. The trends were similar across all measured channels. However, drug stores experienced far greater decreases with chocolate volume down 11.4% in 2024.

Non-chocolate candy

Candy fared a bit better with dollar gains of $4.9% on annual sales of $12.7 billion. This was due a slightly higher rate of inflation combined with flat units and pounds. Several non-chocolate subcategories drove year-over-year gains, including caramel, novelty, and seasonal Halloween and Easter items. In 2024, candy growth was driven by grocery stores, whereas convenience stores (the typical stronghold for non-chocolate candy) had substantial unit and volume declines.

Gum and mints Gum ended the year at $3.7 billion in sales, which was an increase of 1.5% over 2023. Breath fresheners added another $1.3 billion in sales, up 2.0% over 2023. Much like chocolate, the gains were driven by inflation. Units and volume declined year-over-year, with sugar-free gum staying the closest to 2023 levels.

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While Halloween is the biggest of the four confectionery holidays in dollars, it did not alter the 2024 sales trajectory. All year, inflation has boosted year-over-year dollar sales, but unit and volume sales have trailed the 2023 levels, especially in chocolate. The 52-week period ending December 1^st generated a 2.1% increase in dollar sales in Circana’s MULO+ with convenience universe with annual sales of $39 billion. Supermarkets have had a strong 2024, whereas drug and convenience stores have lost ground in units, volume and dollars. Chocolate remained the largest seller, but non-chocolate candy is gaining ground.

Chocolate

Chocolate sales now exceed $21 billion in the 52-week view. However, unit and volume pressure are such that dollar growth has slowed to +0.5%. In the 12- and four-week periods, dollar sales have fallen below the same time periods in 2023. Over the past year, inflation has slowed while unit and volume sales for chocolate have fallen 3.5%, each. A few areas are bucking the trend, including snack-sized chocolate and novelty.

Non-chocolate candy

Non-chocolate candy has generated $12.6 billion in the 52-week period. That is up 5.0% from last year, with only a small unit decline of 0.4%. As such, non-chocolate is taking share from chocolate within the confectionery category. Most subcategories drove growth over the past year, led by seasonal Halloween and Valentine’s Day items, novelty and sugar-free candy. Importantly, these same subcategories also gained in units and pounds, reflecting actual demand growth. Dollar and unit sales also trended in the plus in the shorter four-week view.

Gum and mints

Gum generated $3.7 billion in the past year and breath fresheners added another $1.3 billion. Sugarless gum and breath fresheners grew dollar sales over the past year, whereas regular gum lost ground. After several years of building back toward the pre-pandemic baseline, both gum and breath fresheners lost ground in units over the past year.

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Chocolate

Chocolate sales reached $17.8 million over the latest 52 weeks, up 1.2% versus year ago levels. Growth was driven by inflation, with units (-2.9%) and volume (-3.3%) sales down year-on-year in the 52-week view. During the latest four and 12 weeks, inflation no longer offset similar declines in units and volume and chocolate dollar sales fell below year ago levels for the first time in many years. The declines were felt most in larger pack sizes, Halloween chocolate and sugar-free chocolate. The drug and convenience channel experienced above-average declines, whereas grocery stores fared a bit better.

Non-chocolate candy

Volume sales for non-chocolate candy were flat over the past year. Combined with mild price increases, this resulted in a 6.7% increase in dollar sales over the 52-week period. Non-chocolate candy accounted for more than 30% of all sales, at $9.2 billion over the past year. Several subcategories experienced positive unit and/or volume growth, including caramel/taffy, chewy candy, novelty, Halloween and sugar-free candy. Additionally, non-chocolate candy had a strong performance in the latest four-, twelve- and 52-week periods.

Breath fresheners

Plain mints and breath fresheners account for just over $1 billion in sales, which reflects an increase of 5.2% over last year. While plain mints were down in units, all areas are gaining in volume sales.

Gum

Gum sales patterns have resumed pre-pandemic levels with the bulk of sales and growth clustered in sugar-free gum. $2.2 billion out of the total $2.5 billion in annual gum sales were generated by sugarless gum. Dollar sales for sugarless grew 3.1%, whereas regular gum was down 3.9% year-on-year.

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As of this quad-week report, NCA reporting will cover Circana’s MULO+ with Convenience universe.

• MULO+ includes more retailers that previously did not share data, nor were allowing data projections.
• These retailers represent a wide variety of channels, including club, food, drug, dollar, online and more.
• In the expanded universe, total chocolate, candy, gum and mints generated $38.8 billion.
• Aside from dollars and units, the new reporting also includes volume sales.

The 52 weeks ending September 8^th showed a dollar sales increase of 3.0% versus the year prior. But while dollars increased, total confectionery unit sales decreased by 3.1% and volume declined 2.7%. The majority of volume pressure continued to come from the chocolate side.

• The food (grocery/supermarket) channel had the strongest performance, with positive gains in the shorter four- and 12-week periods for chocolate and only small declines for non-chocolate.
• Total confectionery sales in the convenience channel decreased 4.8% in units, with substantial declines for chocolate and non-chocolate candy.
• Confectionery unit sales in the drug channel were down by double digits. Chocolate sales decreased 12.0% in units over the past year and non-chocolate candy 7.9%.

Chocolate

Chocolate generated $21.4 billion in the latest 52 weeks, which was up 1.4%. Chocolate unit sales decreased by 4.5% and volume by 2.9% — illustrating a shift to larger pack sizes.

• The volume performance varied widely, from double-digit gains for novelty chocolate to double-digit declines for sugar-free chocolate.
• Bag/box/bar greater than 3.5 ounces easily remained the largest seller, at $9 billion annually.
• A very early look at Halloween chocolate shows a lag in dollar, unit and volume sales.

Non-chocolate candy

MULO+ with convenience sales for non-chocolate candy reached $12.4 billion, an increase of 5.3%.

• Non-chocolate remained an above-average performer in unit sales and volume sales in the past year.
• While pound sales decreased year-on-year, the decrease is mild, at -1.0%
• Chew candy generated $6.5 billion in annual sales and remains very close to year-ago levels in units and pounds.
• Novelty non-chocolate candy, at $1.5 billion, grew 18% in dollars and 3.0% in units.

Gum/mints

Gum sales in the expanded universe reached $3.7 billion, with sugarless gum making up the vast majority of sales, at $3.2 billion annually.

• Sugarless gum got closest to year-ago levels, but fell short -0.8% in unit sales and 1.7% in its volume equivalent.
• Breath freshener trends are similar. While dollar sales remained ahead of last year, unit and pound sales were down.

The post 2024: September Circana Report appeared first on NCA.

What this update means for our reporting: 

• For confectionery, the upgrade means an additional $3.1 billion in market coverage, an increase of 8.8% versus the old marketplace reflection. 
• The additional retailers cover all types of retail stores, including traditional supermarkets, clubs, discounters, and e-commerce. 
• In the MULO+ with convenience universe, chocolate, candy, gum, and mints generated $38.7 billion in the past year. This is up 3.2% over the same 52 weeks last year. Chocolate easily remained the biggest seller, at $21.4 billion, followed by non-chocolate candy, at $13.7 billion. 

Channel Review: 

• Where convenience stores have been an above-average performer from 2021 through much of 2023, dollar and unit sales gains dropped below average in the past year. Both chocolate and non-chocolate candy unit sales were down by about 5% to 7% over the past year. 
• Drug stores experienced similar declines, while traditional grocery (the food channel) had an above-average performance.   

Chocolate 

Chocolate year-over-year dollar growth remained in the plus during the 52 weeks ending August 11th, at +1.5%. However, the combination of decelerating price increases and continued pressure on volume sales resulted in dollar sales falling below last year’s levels in the twelve-week view. 

• Dollars decreased by 1.6%, and chocolate units were down 3.9% compared to the same twelve weeks last year. 
• All areas of chocolate experienced volume declines, with the exception of novelty chocolate.
  • At $3.2 million annually, novelty chocolate is a small subcategory but one that grew in both units and dollars. 

Non-chocolate candy 

Contrary to chocolate, non-chocolate candy, including breath fresheners and mints, still experienced dollar gains in all three time periods. 

• Growth was highest during the 52-week period, at +5.6%. 
• Virtually all subcategories in non-chocolate candy grew sales, except for caramel/taffy and specialty nut/coconut candy. 
• Novelty non-chocolate was easily the growth leader, with a dollar increase of 19.3% and unit growth of 4.0%. 
• Overall, non-chocolate candy units are down 1.7%, with decreases ranging from 1.2% for powerhouse seller non-chocolate chewy to a 9.1% decline in unit sales for licorice over the past year. 

Gum 

Gum dollar sales turned negative in the most recent 12 weeks, at -0.4%, mostly driven by regular gum. 

• Unit sales were down for regular and sugarless gum in the 4-, 12-, and 52-week periods. 
• Regular gum experienced an 11.0% decrease in unit sales over the last 52 weeks, and sugarless gum experienced a very slight decline of 0.4%. 

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Over the 52 weeks ending mid-July, confectionery sales increased by a little more than 3% over the year prior to reach $35.6 billion in Circana’s MULO+C universe. Chocolate easily contributed the most, at $19.5 billion, followed by non-chocolate candy at $12.7 billion. Growth shows a very different story between dollars and units. Lingering inflation continued to boost dollars, while units overall were down 3.8% in the 52-week period. The grocery (food) channel is emerging as an above-average performer this year, with dollar sales up 4.0% over the past year and unit sales down 3.0%. Convenience stores, that had been outpacing the average for several years, are now seeing a slowdown in sales with below-average results of -4.5% in dollars.

Chocolate

Chocolate sales experienced above-average inflation along with above-average unit pressure. Over the 52-week period, unit sales for total chocolate decreased 5.5%. This rate of decline is starting to stabilize with very similar numbers for the lates 12-week period (-4.5%) and latest four weeks (-5.2%). All chocolate sub-categories experienced unit sale declines with the lone exception of novelty chocolate, which is the smallest seller. Dollar sales growth was a mix, depending on the level of inflation combined with the strength of demand. A few subcategories, including snack size, novelty and seasonal chocolate increased dollar sales year-over-year by a few percentage points.

Non-chocolate candy

Non-chocolate candy sales are rapidly approaching the $13 billion mark. Dollar sales were up 6.2% over the latest 52 weeks in comparison to the prior year. Chewy non-chocolate was easily the largest subcategory, at $6.0 billion, with robust dollar sales growth of 5.4% during the past year. Non-chocolate candy is also experiencing unit declines, but at -2.0% the unit decrease in the 52-week period is far less than that seen in chocolate. Additionally, the rate of decline in unit sales is easing up, at -0.9% in the 12-week period and -0.6% in the latest four weeks. Summer is typically a strong sales period for non-chocolate.

Gum

Gum was an exception with continued growth in 2023, but is now also trending in the negative as far as unit sales is concerned. Dollar sales were still positive in the 52-week period, at +5.4%, but have turned negative in more recent time periods. Unit sales were down 2.4% over the past year.

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